Start Aaron Hernandez: He'll go off this week

I agree and am starting him this week.


[quote name='Neofight' date='Oct 23 2010, 09:01 PM' post='12473726']
Looking at the game between SD and NE this weekend the match up that most interests me is Tom Brady vs. the SD pass defense, and the same thing on the other side; Rivers - and his depleted WR core - against a susceptible NE pass defense.  San Diego's [url="http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=562813"]offensive and defensive numbers[/url] have been examined in a few threads in the pool previously, but to me it is their 1st overall pass defense that is the most suspect.  They just haven’t faced much quality competition to say that their defense is truly good against the pass.  The best QB they’ve faced is a rookie who beat the secondary for a deep TD to another rookie playing in his first NFL game.  This is not to say that their secondary is bad at all; Cason is solid and Jammer is decent.  The safeties aren’t horrible.  But they are very vulnerable in the middle of the defense, particularly against the pass.  Here are the numbers for opposing TE’s this season:

[code]Week Name Rec Yds TD LG
1 T. Moeaki 3 21 1 16
2 M. Lewis  5 70 0 26
3 J. Carlson 5 61 1 37
4 J. Dray   1 24 0 24
5 Z. Miller 6 62 1 18
6 B. Bajema 3 34 0 18
Avg 3.33 40   .5 20[/code]

Enter Aaron Hernandez.  This guy presents a match up nightmare for any defense, particularly one that has a soft belly in pass coverage.   What is notable about Hernandez through his first 5 games is how in synch he has been with Brady and how much he is used in the middle of the field, both between the 20’s and on intermediate routes in the heart of the opposing defense.  Since a modest 1 catch (on 2 targets) to start the season he has caught 21 balls (on 24 targets), for a total of 22 catches total on 26 targets (with two drops last week in overtime*).  He has 5 catches of over 20 yards and 2 of 40 yards (leading TE’s) or more.  His YPG average ranks behind only Gates and Miller.  The only thing he has not done is get in the end zone; that will change this week as the Patriots call his number early and often against Kevin Burnett and Stephen Cooper.

Of the numbers in the chart above, Moeaki, Carlson and Miller lead their respective teams in receiving yards for the game.  Lewis was second behind Sims-Walker, while Dray had his only reception of the season and Bajema (who averaged 3 receptions his first [i]five years[/i] in the NFL) had over half his yards on the season in that one game.  Even bad/inexperienced TE’s have career days against this D.

On the flip side you have a young but talented Patriot defense that has taken its lumps this season.  I personally think Rivers will get his this weekend against the Pats secondary, but that he won’t be able light it up like he would with his full complement of healthy starters.

In the end I think it will be a shootout and the Patriots will win something like 31-27.  Most of those TD’s should come through the air and Hernandez will have at least one of them.  Gronkowski might get one if they are down inside the 20, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hernandez put up numbers along the lines of 7 for 120 and 2 touches.

The New England two TE set against the largely untested Chargers pass D is a perfect storm.  Things could get frenetic quickly in this game and then slow down a bit as attempts are made to take time off of the clock.  Look for a TE lovefest early though.  Gronkowski could be a sneaky play here if you have buy week or injury issues.

In summary:

• The San Diego pass defense is largely untested and somewhat over-hyped
• The LB’s don’t cover well
• 3 of the 5 passing TD’s given up by the Chargers D have gone to the TE position
• Aaron Hernandez is as indefensible as a first year TE can be
• Tom Brady is a Golden God (with nice hair)
• Philip Rivers is a Bronze God (bad hair)
• San Diego is still below .500
      *    Hernandez is anxious to make up for those two drops at the end of the last game
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